Manipulation Windows Predicted (MWP)
How far ahead the directorate is seeing — manipulation surges forecast before they hit. Prediction is what turns reaction into prevention.
Interpretation
Counter-operations metrics track the volume, velocity, and effectiveness of active interventions. These numbers reflect real-world deployments — every counter-op has a human lead, a defined scope, and a rules-of-engagement framework. Overstretch (more ops than operators can manage) is as dangerous as under-response.
Formula
Thresholds & Bands
| Band | Range | State |
|---|---|---|
| Anticipated | ≥ 70% | ok |
| Partial | 45-70% | warn |
| Surprised | < 45% | crit |
Data Collection
Computed by GOVERNOR from its internal decision log and state tables. Values are deterministic — the same input state always yields the same reading.
GOVERNOR Behavior
Anticipated (≥ 70%): GOVERNOR logs the reading, updates the standing dashboard, and takes no further action. Partial (45-70%): GOVERNOR escalates to an advisory notification. The on-duty watch officer receives an alert, and the metric is flagged in the next Steward briefing if the condition persists for two consecutive reporting periods. Surprised (< 45%): GOVERNOR triggers an immediate escalation. The Steward is notified directly, the relevant department head is paged, and all related dashboards enter amber-alert mode until the reading recovers above the warning threshold.